Overview
- A Financial Express poll shows almost 90% of economists and market participants predict the MPC will keep the repo rate at 5.50% and retain a neutral stance.
- HSBC Global Investment Research forecasts India’s GDP will average 7% in the June–December quarters of FY26, reinforcing views that policy can remain unchanged.
- Retail inflation has eased to about 2.1%, its lowest level in six years, reducing price-stability concerns for the RBI.
- An SBI report argues a 25 bp cut in early August could trigger a pre-Diwali credit surge, citing historical spikes in festive lending.
- Only ICICI Bank and ICRA also expect a 25 bp reduction, while most analysts prefer to monitor the transmission of past rate cuts before further easing.