Overview

• Russia escalated its rhetoric as Sergey Lavrov said NATO and the EU had already declared a real war on Russia, and the Russian ambassador in France warned that downing Russian aircraft would mean war.
• NATO has reinforced its eastern posture with expanded air policing and the Eastern Sentry operation following a series of incursions into allied airspace this month.
• Alliance leaders remain divided on use of force, with Germany urging restraint while several Eastern European officials and President Donald Trump endorse the option to shoot down violators after warnings.
• Estonia triggered Article 4 consultations after three Russian MiG-31s spent about 12 minutes in its airspace, and Poland earlier shot down Russian drones in an engagement noted as a first for NATO forces over allied territory.
• Hybrid tactics added to concerns as reports of GPS interference near Kaliningrad disrupted navigation, including a flight carrying Spain’s defense minister and a separate drone presence that prompted a temporary shutdown at Copenhagen airport.