Overview

• The SVR claims Britain intends to use Ukrainian special forces to stage sinkings in maritime chokepoints and present them as accidental ecological disasters
• Experts including Dr Sidharth Kaushal warn that Russia may execute its own false-flag attacks on ageing tankers to implicate the West and justify tighter measures
• The UK’s National Crime Agency has alerted financial institutions to complex front-company networks that facilitate Russian oil trade through underinsured, flag-switched vessels
• UK, US, EU and Canadian sanctions have targeted more than 400 shadow fleet tankers and driven monthly oil shipments from over 50 million barrels to under 20 million barrels since January
• Maritime safety observers caution that the intensifying intelligence clash and covert operations raise risks of environmental damage and broader escalation at sea