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Mortgage Strain Deepens in Russia as Affordability Diverges, Arrears Jump

High interest rates following subsidy rollbacks are squeezing borrowing, widening regional affordability gaps.

Overview

  • RIA’s new regional ranking puts average monthly mortgage payments at 48.8% of two workers’ net pay, with Chukotka and Yamalo‑Nenets least burdened and Kalmykia facing the heaviest load.
  • Mortgage origination fell sharply in Jan–Aug 2025 to 502,000 loans worth 2.2 trillion rubles, down from 968,000 loans and 3.5 trillion rubles a year earlier.
  • In Tatarstan, overdue mortgage debt tripled year over year to 5.7 billion rubles as total housing debt reached 683.2 billion rubles, with average payments equal to 56.6% of wages.
  • Major developers’ leverage rose from 3.0 to 4.2 (Total Debt/OIBDA) between mid‑2024 and mid‑2025, and banks will face a higher 40% risk‑weight add‑on for highly leveraged corporates from December 1.
  • Banks tightened housing credit standards, with the mortgage rejection rate exceeding 60% in September, according to the National Bureau of Credit Histories.