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Mortgage Rule Changes Fuel Summer Surge in UK Housing Market

Record supply paired with higher stamp duty is restraining price growth, which led Zoopla to cut its 2025 forecast to 1%.

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Overview

  • FCA mortgage affordability rule revisions have boosted borrowing capacity by up to 20%, contributing to an 11% rise in buyer demand and an 8% increase in agreed sales year-on-year.
  • The average UK house price rose 1.3% year-on-year to £268,400 in June, down from 2.1% growth six months earlier.
  • Higher stamp duty liabilities now affect 83% of homeowners, prompting many buyers to negotiate price reductions to offset extra tax costs.
  • Zoopla has halved its 2025 house price growth forecast from 2% to 1% as subdued inflation and strong buyer negotiating power prevail.
  • Regional contrasts remain stark: Northern Ireland saw 6.1% annual price growth (7.8% in Belfast), while southern England recorded the weakest gains at just 0.2%–0.3%.