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Mortgage Rates Touch One-Year Low After Fed Cut as Odds of December Easing Recede

Powell's post-cut caution leaves December easing in doubt, keeping mortgage pricing tethered to a roughly 4% 10-year yield.

Overview

  • Freddie Mac reports the average 30-year fixed rate at 6.17% for the week ending Oct. 30, the lowest level in more than a year.
  • Redfin says rates could tick up after Powell signaled a December cut is not assured, a shift from expectations that had been priced in.
  • Lenders point to the 10-year Treasury near 4.0%–4.1% as the key driver, with a move toward 4.2% potentially pushing mortgages near 6.5% quickly.
  • Analysts note the Oct. 29 quarter-point Fed cut had largely been reflected in mortgage pricing ahead of the decision.
  • Experts advise locking a workable rate and shopping lenders, with the option to refinance later, as forecasts cluster in the low-to-mid 6% range and some see 6.1%–6.3% by late November absent major shocks.