Overview
- Mortgage applications edged up 0.2% in the week ending Nov. 21, with seasonally adjusted purchase activity up 8% and government-backed purchases up 9%, MBA data show.
- The average 30-year fixed rate was about 6.40% in the latest MBA survey, roughly 6.32%–6.37% in private trackers, and near 5.99% per Zillow’s daily gauge.
- Futures markets put the probability of a quarter-point Fed cut on Dec. 10 around 80%–85%, though missing CPI data and recent Fed remarks have kept odds volatile.
- Analysts stress that mortgage pricing follows the bond market—especially the 10-year Treasury—and note rates have at times risen after recent Fed cuts.
- Housing indicators remain soft, with October existing home sales at a 4.1 million annual pace and inventories at the highest since 2019, while lenders advise rate locks and readiness to refinance if costs fall further.