Overview

• Average 30-year mortgage quotes have eased to roughly 6.6%–6.7%, with NerdWallet/Zillow at 6.59% and HousingWire’s conventional average at 6.72%, the lowest levels in months.
• Traders assign roughly 90% odds to a September Federal Reserve rate cut to a 4.00%–4.25% target range, according to CME FedWatch.
• Mortgage Bankers Association data show total applications fell 1.2% last week, as purchase loans dropped 3% and refinances rose 1%, with the average contract rate down to 6.64%, the lowest since April.
• Analysts caution that a single 25-basis-point move would likely have a muted effect on mortgage pricing, which is driven more by longer-term Treasury yields and has already reflected some easing.
• Friday’s U.S. jobs report and upcoming inflation readings arrive before the Sept. 16–17 Fed meeting and could shift cut odds and bond yields that influence mortgage rates.