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Mortgage Rates Slide to Multi-Month Lows, Fueling Refi Boom but Failing to Lift Home Purchases

Bond markets are pricing a higher chance of a September Fed rate cut following steady inflation and weaker jobs figures.

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In an aerial view, homes are seen under construction at a new housing development on August 08, 2025, in Henderson, Nevada.
One of the prime factors keeping the U.S. housing market frozen is mortgage rates.
An aerial view of a housing development on August 08, 2025 in Las Vegas, Nevada.

Overview

  • 30-year conforming rates fell roughly 10 basis points last week, reaching as low as 6.53%—their lowest level since early April.
  • Refinance applications jumped about 23%, accounting for 46.5% of total mortgage activity, while adjustable-rate loans climbed to nearly 10% share.
  • Mortgage purchase applications rose by just 1%, indicating that cheaper borrowing costs have not yet prompted a broader homebuying recovery.
  • Stable 2.7% year-over-year inflation and weak July jobs readings boosted market expectations of a September Fed cut, and UK two-year fixed rates dipped below 5% for the first time since the 2022 mini-budget.
  • Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas research cautions that most homeowners already hold comparatively low rates and that income gaps and borrower inattention could limit future refinancing gains.