Overview

• The average rate for 30-year conforming mortgages fell to 6.86%, with FHA rates at 6.55% and jumbo rates at 6.46%, marking their lowest levels of 2025.
• The Federal Open Market Committee left its policy rate unchanged at 4.25%–4.5%, while Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman dissented in favor of a 25-basis-point cut.
• CME Group’s FedWatch tool indicates an 87% probability that traders expect a 25-basis-point Fed rate reduction in September.
• Mortgage Bankers Association data show a 3.1% week-over-week increase in total applications and a 5% rise in refinance volume, with both purchase and refinance activity up 18% year-over-year.
• Declining 10-year Treasury yields and July’s below-forecast 73,000-job gain have driven borrowing costs down and encouraged homebuying and refinancing.