Overview

• Mortgage Bankers Association data show the 30-year fixed averaged 6.49% in the week ended Sept. 5, lifting total applications 9.2% to a three-year high.
• Refinance activity rose 12% week over week and accounted for 48.8% of applications, the highest share since October 2024.
• ICE Mortgage Technology estimates about 3.1 million loans are now "in the money" to refinance, up from roughly 2 million just weeks earlier.
• Weaker jobs reports drove 10-year Treasury yields lower, with August payrolls up only 22,000 and prior months revised down, helping pull mortgage rates into the mid‑6% range.
• Futures imply a Fed rate cut next week, but analysts caution mortgage costs follow bond yields, with projections pointing to only modest further declines and near-term CPI data posing a key risk.