Overview

• U.S. payrolls rose by just 22,000 in August, sending bond yields lower and pulling the average 30-year fixed mortgage down 16 basis points to 6.29%, the lowest since October 2024.
• Mortgage News Daily reported many lenders now quoting in the low-6% to high-5% range, while the 10-year Treasury yield fell to 4.076%.
• Markets widely anticipate the Federal Reserve will begin easing at its Sept. 17 meeting, leaving the near-term path for mortgage rates tied to that decision.
• HousingWire says sustained sub-6% mortgages remain unlikely without a weaker economy or a more dovish Fed, though a return to normal MBS spreads could trim rates by 0.47 to 0.67 percentage points to roughly 5.82% to 6.02%.
• Lower borrowing costs could lift fall housing activity, yet affordability pressures and a limited share of refinanceable loans constrain a rapid rebound.