Overview
- The Federal Reserve cut its benchmark rate three times by 0.25 percentage point in late 2025, yet mortgage rates moved only slightly as markets had already priced in the shifts.
- Average purchase rates were recently 5.99% for a 30-year fixed and 5.38% for a 15-year as of December 23, 2025, according to Zillow, with refinance averages higher.
- Compiled forecasts from Fannie Mae, MBA, NAR, NAHB, Wells Fargo and Curinos point to only modest easing next year, keeping rates clustered near the low-6% range.
- Inflation trends and labor-market data remain the strongest drivers of Treasury yields and mortgage-backed securities pricing that influence home loan costs.
- Experts advise buyers to prioritize personal affordability, consider locking a suitable rate, and prepare for the possibility that lower rates could increase competition with limited inventory.