Overview

• The Mortgage Bankers Association reports the average 30-year contract rate rose to 6.46% in the week ended Sept. 26, with refinance applications dropping nearly 21% and purchase applications slipping 1%.
• Rates had briefly fallen to roughly 6.13% after the Fed decision but have since settled back into the mid-6% range, with industry trackers showing averages around 6.3% to 6.46% entering October.
• Analysts emphasize that mortgage pricing follows the 10-year Treasury yield and mortgage-backed-securities spreads rather than the Fed’s short-term rate.
• Redfin’s analysis of FHFA data shows 19.7% of outstanding mortgages carried rates of 6% or higher in Q2 2025, indicating some easing of the pandemic-era lock-in and gradual inventory improvement.
• Lenders cite a tentative pickup in originations for fall, though they warn the outlook depends on rate stability and could be hindered by market volatility and potential government shutdown complications.