Overview
- MBA data for the week ending June 12 showed total mortgage applications fell 3.8% from the prior week and purchase applications declined about 3% while remaining roughly 3% above last year.
- The MBA reported the average contract rate for a 30-year conforming mortgage held at 6.60% for the sampled week even as private trackers measured 30-year averages in the mid-6% range.
- Refinance activity dropped 5% week-over-week but stood about 17% higher than a year earlier, reflecting high borrower sensitivity to rate moves.
- Markets linked the recent drop in rates to lower oil prices and weaker 10-year Treasury yields after signs the Strait of Hormuz could reopen, a shift that reduced near-term inflation fears.
- Investors and borrowers are watching incoming inflation and jobs data plus Fed guidance under new Chair Kevin Warsh for whether the modest easing will persist and prompt more sellers to list homes.