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Mortgage Rates Hold Near 6% Despite Fed Cuts as Easing Proves Limited

Economists say mortgage pricing tracks the 10‑year Treasury, with structural supply shortages limiting affordability gains.

Overview

  • Average 30‑year purchase rates sit around 6.12% with 15‑year loans near 5.37%, while 30‑year refinance offers hover near 6.71%, according to Zillow data reported Tuesday.
  • Multiple trackers show little change since the Fed’s Dec. 10 move, with Mortgage News Daily at 6.29% and HousingWire’s locked 30‑year conventional rate at 6.34%, underscoring that mortgages follow the 10‑year Treasury more than the Fed funds rate.
  • The Fed cut its benchmark rate by 25 basis points to a 3.50%–3.75% range on Dec. 10, yet Chair Jerome Powell warned small policy moves will not fix housing affordability given a long‑running supply shortfall.
  • Forecasts compiled by CNBC suggest 30‑year rates will average roughly 5.9%–6.3% in 2026, and NAR estimates a 1‑point drop could add about 5.5 million households to the pool of potential buyers, with Florida sales already ticking up when rates dip.
  • Experts urge borrowers to comparison‑shop, consider rate‑lock float‑down options, and be wary of “no‑cost” refinance pitches that can mask fees or unfavorable terms.