Overview
- Zillow lists the average 30-year mortgage at 5.99% on Feb. 3, with the 15-year at 5.37%, matching late-January levels.
- The average 30-year refinance rate moved to 6.75% on Feb. 3, while the 15-year refi average edged down to 5.62%.
- Analysts expect a modest pullback through February, with some projections calling for averages to slip below 6%, including a 5.75% forecast from Morgan Stanley.
- With the Fed holding its policy rate at the first 2026 meeting, mortgage pricing is tracking the 10-year Treasury; Mortgage News Daily shows best-execution 30-year rates near 6.20% after a slight weekly uptick.
- Market drivers include stronger manufacturing data, the nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair, a delayed January jobs report during a brief shutdown, an upcoming CPI release on Feb. 11, and a reported $200 billion mortgage-bond purchase plan that could narrow spreads.