Overview

• Mortgage application volume slipped 0.5% last week, with the average 30‑year fixed contract rate at 6.69% and refinance applications down 4%, according to MBA data.
• Spot rates touched recent year‑to‑date lows near 6.52% on Mortgage News Daily, yet analysts caution that any September Fed cut may not translate directly into lower mortgage coupons.
• FHN Financial says another 20–30 basis‑point decline would expose several large securitized loan buckets of $200–$300 billion each to refinancing incentives, though pandemic‑era ultra‑low coupons remain out of reach.
• Intercontinental Exchange estimates roughly 3 million borrowers could refinance if rates fall to about 6.3%, with Q2 refi activity the strongest in years and average recent refinancers saving about $240 per month.
• Younger buyers are leaning on adjustable‑rate loans or plans to refinance, a strategy experts warn is risky, as political turmoil over President Trump’s move to oust Fed Governor Lisa Cook has not materially shifted mortgage rates.