Overview

• Total mortgage applications rose 0.6% in the week ended Sept. 19, driven by lower borrowing costs, MBA data show.
• The average 30-year fixed rate fell to 6.34%, the lowest since September 2024, with refis climbing to 60.2% of activity.
• Refinance applications increased 1% week over week and were 42% higher than a year ago, now up about 80% from four weeks earlier.
• Government lending led the refi boost, with VA refinance volume up nearly 15%, while ARM share eased to 8.9%.
• Purchase applications were essentially flat week over week but ran 18% above last year, as forecasts from Fannie Mae now point to mortgage rates near 6.4% by year-end 2025 and 5.9% in 2026, with markets largely pricing Fed cuts in October and December.