Overview

• Thirty-year fixed averages fell to roughly the mid‑6% range, with Mortgage News Daily at 6.28% on Monday and Freddie Mac at 6.50% last week.
• August payrolls rose by just 22,000 and unemployment reached 4.3%, helping pull 10‑year Treasury yields lower and dragging mortgage rates down.
• CME FedWatch shows roughly 88%–89% odds of a quarter‑point cut on Sept. 17, with a smaller probability of a half‑point move also priced in.
• The pool of refinanceable loans jumped to about 3.1 million from 2.0 million in two weeks, ICE reported, with more borrowers eligible if rates reach 6.25%–6.125%.
• Industry trackers expect only modest further declines, with ICE projecting around 6.27% by December as affordability pressures continue to weigh on buyers.