Overview

• Moneyfacts reports the average UK five-year fixed rate at 4.99% and the two-year at 4.97%, both below 5% for the first time since 2023, with 7,031 mortgage products now available.
• The Bank of England reduced its base rate to 4% earlier this month, helping drive recent declines in short-term fixed mortgage pricing.
• In the United States, Freddie Mac shows the 30-year fixed at 6.58% and the 15-year at 5.69%, holding near the lowest levels since late 2024.
• Markets are pricing strong odds of a September Fed rate cut as they await Powell’s speech, while analysts say materially lower mortgage rates would likely require a drop in 10-year Treasury yields and narrower mortgage spreads.
• Housing activity is mixed: Freddie Mac says purchase applications are outpacing 2024, MBA data show weekly refinances down 3% with purchases flat, and NAR reports July existing-home sales up 2% from June.