Overview
- Average 30-year purchase quotes are near 5.99% this week on Zillow, while the MBA’s latest survey shows a 6.32% contract rate for the week ended Nov. 28.
- Purchase applications rose 2.5% to the strongest level since early 2023, even as refinancing activity continued to slip, according to MBA data.
- Traders put the odds of a Dec. 10 Fed funds cut at roughly 87%, yet analysts expect limited mortgage-rate relief because the 30-year–10-year Treasury spread, recently about 2.19%, remains elevated.
- Realtor.com forecasts 2026 mortgage rates averaging about 6.3%, modest national price gains of roughly 2.2%, and price declines in 22 large metros concentrated in the Southeast and West, including projected drops near 10% in Cape Coral–Fort Myers and about 9% in North Port–Sarasota–Bradenton.
- Redfin sees existing-home sales ending 2026 up about 3% year over year with rates holding in the low-6% range, while a persistent lock-in—four in five owners hold sub-6% mortgages—continues to cap inventory and turnover.