Overview

• After the Fed’s 25-basis-point cut in September, the average 30-year rate fell to about 6.13%, a three-year low, before rebounding to roughly 6.30%–6.35% late last week.
• Mortgage applications jumped 29.7% in the week leading into the decision and rose again by 0.6% the following week, with refinancing interest picking up.
• Housing supply has improved to its highest level since May 2020, as the share of outstanding loans with rates at or above 6% reached 19.7% in Q2 2025, easing the pandemic-era lock-in.
• At today’s averages, a $300,000 30-year loan costs about $1,824 a month in principal and interest versus roughly $2,004 in January, yielding meaningful monthly and lifetime savings.
• Economists see cautious potential for stronger sales as rates and inventory improve, yet affordability gains vary widely across metros and mortgage pricing is tracking moves in the 10-year Treasury yield.