Overview

• Mortgage Bankers Association data for the week ending Oct. 3 show total applications down 4.7% from the prior week, with refinances off 8% and purchases down 1%.
• Adjustable-rate mortgages gained traction as their share rose to 9.5%, with average 5/1 ARM rates around 5.49% versus 6.43% for 30-year fixed loans.
• ICE Mortgage Technology reports the best affordability since early 2023, with a typical monthly principal-and-interest payment of $2,148 equal to 30% of median income.
• IMT’s McDash analysis estimates about 3.1 million borrowers had refinance incentives near a 6.38% rate, roughly 3.6 million when rates briefly dipped below ~6.25%, and about 5 million if rates slide below ~6.13%.
• Borrower profiles improved with purchase-lock credit scores above 736 and purchase DTIs at 38.5%, even as August delinquencies edged up to 3.43% and listings remained about 18% below 2017–2019 norms with coastal markets still highly stretched.