Overview
- Analyst Andrew Percoco replaced Adam Jonas and assigned Tesla an Equal Weight rating with a raised $425 price target after a full sum‑of‑the‑parts overhaul.
- Core auto value was cut to $55 per share with deliveries now modeled at 1.6 million in 2026 and reduced totals through 2040, reflecting slower EV adoption and tougher competition.
- Software and robotics were explicitly valued, including $145 per share for FSD and network services and $60 for Optimus with a 50% probability discount due to execution risk.
- Rivian and Lucid were downgraded to Underweight with price targets of $12 and $10 respectively, citing the loss of the $7,500 federal EV tax credit and cooling EV demand.
- General Motors was upgraded to Buy with a $90 target as Morgan Stanley forecasts an 'EV winter' through 2026, and Tesla shares fell about 3%–4% intraday with Rivian and Lucid also lower.