Overview
- Morgan Stanley’s base case pegs the Sensex at 95,000 by December 2026, implying roughly 13% upside.
- In scenario analysis, the firm assigns a 30% probability to a bull case of 107,000 and a 20% probability to a bear case of 76,000, contingent on oil, global growth and trade conditions.
- The forecast assumes Sensex earnings compound at 17% annually through FY2028 alongside one more 25‑basis‑point rate cut and a supportive liquidity backdrop.
- Strategy guidance favors domestically cyclical sectors, with overweights in financials, consumer discretionary and industrials, and underweights in energy, materials, utilities and healthcare.
- The note flags a sharper global slowdown or oil above $100 a barrel as key risks and highlights light foreign positioning and resilient domestic flows after recent underperformance.