Morgan Stanley Sees Apple Tapping $133 Billion a Year From Robotics by 2040

Overview

• The bank’s median case models Apple at roughly 9% market share in humanoid and consumer robotics, producing about $133 billion in annual revenue by 2040, with an upside scenario far higher.
• Its adoption model assumes about 415,000 humanoid robots sold into U.S. households each year by 2040 at around $30,000 per unit, implying roughly 1.65% penetration and gradual price declines.
• Separate reporting says Apple is exploring a tabletop robotic arm with an iPad-like display that could arrive as soon as 2027, a timeline described as tentative and unconfirmed.
• Morgan Stanley highlights Apple’s balance sheet of about $130 billion in cash, an installed base near 2.3 billion devices, and know‑how from the defunct Project Titan as competitive advantages.
• The note flags technical hurdles in perception, manipulation and task speed, points to industry momentum at Nvidia, Foxconn, Tesla and Amazon, and lists validation signals such as an Apple Intelligence relaunch, increased AI hiring, patent activity and partnerships.