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Morgan Stanley Sees 200,000 European Bank Jobs at Risk From AI by 2030

Lenders are turning to automation for roughly 30% efficiency gains, with the deepest impact in risk, compliance, operations.

Overview

  • The projection covers about 35 major European lenders employing roughly 2.12 million people, implying a 10% workforce reduction by 2030.
  • Cuts are expected to concentrate in back-office and middle-office functions including risk management and compliance as data-heavy tasks are automated.
  • Banks cite AI-driven digitalisation and branch closures to pursue efficiency gains of around 30% and improved cost-to-income ratios.
  • Concrete actions include ABN Amro’s plan to reduce headcount by about 20% by 2028, while Société Générale’s chief executive has said “nothing is sacred.”
  • Some leaders warn of weakened junior training even as the shift goes global, with Goldman Sachs telling U.S. staff in October to expect cuts and a hiring freeze under its “OneGS 3.0” program.