Morgan Stanley Reaffirms NIO Overweight on 40%–50% Two‑Year Delivery Growth Outlook

Overview

• Morgan Stanley kept a $7 price target after meeting founder William Li, pointing to a sharper execution focus and multi‑year growth plans.
• Management guides to 40%–50% annual delivery growth, implying roughly 456,000 to 489,000 vehicles in 2026.
• Macquarie upgraded NIO to Outperform with a $6.10 target and lifted its 2026 volume forecast to about 451,000 units.
• The ES9 is highlighted as a margin driver with an average selling price near ¥500,000 and estimated profit of over ¥100,000 per vehicle.
• Macquarie reports BaaS usage surpassing 80% of recent sales, as NIO posts 277,893 YTD deliveries through November 2025, up 45.6% year over year.