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Morgan Stanley Quantifies Deepening TeslaSpaceX Ties Around Physical AI

The bank’s analysis shows material related‑party transactions plus shared projects that could speed real‑world AI deployments in robotics, vehicles and energy.

Overview

  • Morgan Stanley’s note, published Monday, counted 71 references to Tesla in SpaceX’s S‑1 and found about a third describe direct collaboration while roughly 41% relate to governance or related‑party transactions.
  • The bank highlighted large 2025 purchases by SpaceX from Tesla, citing roughly $506 million in Megapack energy storage systems and $131 million in Cybertrucks that support SpaceX’s Colossus computing cluster.
  • Analysts described a reciprocal setup in which SpaceX supplies computing capacity and Starlink connectivity to Tesla while Tesla provides robotics, batteries and manufacturing know‑how, and they cited a joint AI agent project called Macrohard.
  • Morgan Stanley projected SpaceX terrestrial compute growth to about 4.9 gigawatts by the end of 2027 and to 15.3 gigawatts by 2031, and it flagged Terafab, a Texas chip project with Intel, with reported capital needs above $119 billion.
  • Despite deeper operational links and rising investor attention, no merger or deal terms have been announced and significant hurdles remain, including shareholder approvals, valuation mechanics and geopolitical or regulatory frictions tied to Tesla’s China business and SpaceX’s defense work.