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Morgan Stanley Predicts Sensex Could Reach 89,000 by June 2026, with Bull Case Target of 1,00,000

The equity strategy report assigns a 50% probability to the base case projection, highlighting robust domestic growth and stable macroeconomic conditions as key drivers.

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Stock Market Bull.
Brokerage house Morgan Stanley predicts that in a bullish case BSE Sensex could hit the 1 lakh mark. | Image: Republic

Overview

  • Morgan Stanley sets a base case target of 89,000 for the Sensex by June 2026, reflecting an 8% upside from its current level of 81,642.
  • The firm assigns a 30% probability to a bull case scenario where the Sensex could hit 1,00,000, contingent on factors such as oil prices below $65 per barrel and progress on GST cuts and farm reforms.
  • A bear case projection of 70,000, with a 20% probability, assumes adverse conditions including oil prices exceeding $100 per barrel and a US recession.
  • Key technical supports include strong retail investor participation, low market volatility, and historically weak foreign portfolio investor positioning.
  • Morgan Stanley recommends a defensive, stock-picker strategy with overweight positions in financials, consumer discretionary, and industrials, while underweighting energy, materials, utilities, and healthcare.