Overview
- Morgan Stanley reaffirmed an Overweight rating on Alibaba and raised its price target to $200 from $165 on September 29.
- The bank increased its cloud revenue growth forecasts to 32% for fiscal 2026 and 40% for fiscal 2027.
- Capex assumptions rose to Rmb130–135 billion per year for fiscal 2026–2028, with 10–15GW of added data center capacity projected by 2032.
- Analysts said conviction strengthened after Alibaba’s Apsara Conference, citing solid demand with token counts doubling every two to three months.
- Alibaba shares have gained more than 110% this year as investors focus on AI and cloud, though U.S. delisting pressure and China policy risks persist.