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Morgan Stanley Cuts Tesla to Equal Weight, Citing Risk of an ‘EV Winter

Divergent views on autonomy progress versus weakening car demand are driving the valuation debate.

Overview

  • Morgan Stanley downgraded Tesla to Equal Weight and lifted its price target to $425, warning of a 2026 ‘EV winter’ with U.S. EV volumes projected to fall about 20% and battery-electric share to slip to 6.5% as light-vehicle sales decline to 15.9 million.
  • Lead analyst Andrew Percoco flagged a challenging 12‑month catalyst path, pointing to softer auto margins, slowing deliveries, and a view that non‑auto upside from robotaxis, humanoids, and network services is largely priced in.
  • Piper Sandler reiterated an Overweight rating with a $500 target, citing FSD Community Tracker data showing a greater than 20x jump in miles to critical disengagement after the October v14.1.x release, to 9,200+ miles.
  • Valuation concerns intensified as coverage noted Tesla trades around 307 times trailing earnings, with Michael Burry calling the shares “ridiculously overvalued.”
  • Reports highlighted continued strength in Tesla’s energy operations, with storage deployments up more than 80% year over year and some analysts suggesting potential for faster growth tied to AI data‑center demand.