Overview

• Mexico keeps a Baa2 sovereign rating with a negative outlook, indicating a tangible risk of downgrade.
• A 2024 fiscal deficit above 5% of GDP raised public debt by more than five percentage points and pushed interest costs to about 17% of federal revenues.
• Moody’s base case projects debt nearing roughly 50% of GDP by 2027–28 without credible consolidation, with the 2025 deficit still expected to exceed 4%.
• Pemex was upgraded to B1 on a multiyear support plan featuring $12 billion in precapitalized notes, a $13.3 billion supplier fund, up to $9.9 billion in bond buybacks, capital transfers, and a $14 billion 2026 budget line.
• Pemex’s structural issues persist with a Caa standalone profile and likely cash needs in 2026–27, heightening contingent liabilities for the sovereign.