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2h ago

Moody’s Sees India Leading G‑20 Growth Through 2027, Ind‑Ra Estimates 7.2% Q2 GDP

Moody's credits infrastructure spending, resilient consumption, export diversification, plus a neutral policy backdrop for the outlook.

Indian Economy
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Overview

  • Moody’s projects real GDP growth of 7.0% in 2025 and about 6.5% in 2026–27, keeping India the fastest‑growing G‑20 economy.
  • The rating agency points to robust infrastructure investment, steady household demand, diversified exports, subdued inflation, and the RBI’s October rate hold as supports.
  • Despite U.S. tariffs of around 50% on select goods, exporters redirected shipments, with overall exports up 6.75% in September as sales to the U.S. fell 11.9%.
  • Ind‑Ra estimates Q2 FY26 growth at 7.2%, led by roughly 8% private consumption growth and about 7.5% investment, with government capex buoying momentum.
  • Analysts flag risks from sub‑8% nominal GDP in Q2 that could strain tax receipts and from weaker goods exports in H2; the NSO releases official Q2 data on November 28.