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Moody’s Puts Pemex’s 2025–27 Cash Need at $60.7 Billion, Flagging Ongoing Operational Strain

The warning underscores that recent state aid has eased pressure without closing Pemex’s structural gap.

Overview

  • Moody’s estimates Pemex will require $34.8 billion in 2025, $18.4 billion in 2026, and $7.5 billion in 2027 to cover operational and financing shortfalls.
  • The agency cites falling output from mature fields and sharply reduced drilling as key drivers of ongoing risk.
  • Moody’s says the recovery plan’s success depends on attracting partners, tighter cost control, and meeting production goals.
  • Government backing includes budget allocations, debt payments and buybacks, and a sovereign-backed fund to pay suppliers and potentially finance new investments.
  • Credit moves have eased near-term stress, with Moody’s at B1 (stable) and Fitch lifting Pemex to BB+ after a $9.9 billion debt repurchase financed by the state, while Multiva says the plan gives the company short-term breathing room.