Overview

• Peru’s 2025 growth forecast rises to 3.3%, with Moody’s pointing to low inflation, higher copper prices and increased public spending as key supports.
• Mexico’s outlook improves to 0.3% growth in 2025, as lower interest rates and low unemployment sustain consumption despite U.S. tariff uncertainty.
• Moody’s now sees Latin America expanding about 2.3% in 2025, with a moderation expected in 2026 given weaker external demand, fiscal constraints and policy uncertainty.
• U.S. trade policy remains a notable risk for the region, including potential redefinition of USMCA/T‑MEC terms that could weigh on 2026 prospects.
• Argentina’s 2025 forecast is cut to 4.5% after peso depreciation, a monetary run and sharp rate hikes, while Moody’s says Mexico and Colombia are the only economies not expected to weaken next year.