Overview

• Peru’s 2025 growth is now pegged at 3.3%, driven by low inflation, high copper prices and higher public spending, with activity seen moderating to about 3% in 2026.
• Mexico’s 2025 outlook improves to 0.3% as lower interest rates and a tight labor market support consumption, and Moody’s says Mexico and Colombia are the only economies not weakening next year.
• Latin America’s GDP is expected to expand roughly 2.3% in 2025 before easing to around 2% in 2026, remaining below the region’s potential.
• Moody’s highlights U.S. trade-policy risk, including possible tariffs and 2026 T-MEC discussions, as a significant threat to regional trade and investment.
• Argentina’s 2025 forecast is cut to 4.5% on currency stress and steep rate hikes, and a heavy 2025–26 election calendar across major economies heightens policy uncertainty.