Overview

• Mexico retains a Baa2 sovereign rating with a negative outlook, signaling ongoing downgrade risk, according to Moody's analysts.
• Moody's says it needs through the first quarter of 2026 to evaluate fiscal consolidation and Pemex execution before determining whether to cut or maintain the rating.
• Mexico’s 2024 fiscal deficit exceeded 5% of GDP, lifting public debt and pushing interest costs to roughly 17% of federal revenues.
• Moody’s details roughly $50 billion in multiyear federal support for Pemex across four transactions that improved the company’s liquidity and underpinned its upgrade, though they raise sovereign contingent liabilities.
• Pemex’s financial debt could fall toward $78–79 billion by end‑2027 only if it takes on no new borrowing, while Fitch projects 1.2% GDP growth and public financing needs near 4.1% of GDP in 2026 and urges deep tax reform; Moody’s also notes Pemex’s ongoing operational strains and cash needs.