Overview

• The U.S. 25% reciprocal duty took effect on Aug 7, with a further 25% levy linked to India’s Russian oil purchases scheduled for Aug 27, as New Delhi called the move unfair, put trade talks on hold and scrapped an 11% cotton import duty through Sept 30 to support textiles.
• Moody’s Analytics says the 50% tariff burden will reduce U.S. demand for Indian goods very substantially and weigh on investment and exports for the remainder of Trump’s presidency.
• Fitch flags rising risks for sectors including auto suppliers, pharmaceuticals and crop‑protection chemicals, citing exposures at Samvardhana Motherson, Biocon Biologics and UPL, and warns of second‑order effects that could dent India’s FY26 growth if tariffs stay elevated.
• Logistics specialists report cargo is already being rerouted, with higher landed costs threatening the viability of mid‑ to low‑margin airfreight and pushing capacity toward European and Middle Eastern hubs, particularly affecting pharmaceuticals and perishables.
• S&P Global finds Chinese exports to the Global South have doubled since 2015 to about US$1.6 trillion and investments in Southeast Asia have quadrupled, indicating South–South trade is becoming a new center of gravity.