Overview

• The U.S. 25% reciprocal tariff took effect on Aug. 7, with a second 25% levy linked to India’s Russian oil purchases due on Aug. 27, which will create a de facto 50% rate on Indian goods.
• Moody’s says the combined rate will reduce U.S. demand for Indian exports “very substantially” and expects the levies to persist through President Trump’s term, weighing on investment and wages.
• Fitch flags rising risk for autos, pharmaceuticals, crop‑protection chemicals and oil marketers, noting exposures at Samvardhana Motherson, Biocon Biologics, UPL and state‑owned OMCs.
• Biocon derives about 40% of sales from the U.S., Russian crude makes up 30%–40% of OMC imports, and Fitch warns a full halt could trim OMC Ebitda by around 10% even with sovereign support.
• Fitch sees minimal direct tariff impact on IT services, cement, telecoms and utilities but warns of second‑order pressures, possible downside to its 6.5% FY26 growth view, and domestic price squeezes as supply is diverted; Peter Navarro criticized India’s Russian oil buys as New Delhi condemned the move, and U.S. officials have suggested a possible deferral of the Aug. 25 trade talk.