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Moody’s Economist Warns on White House 50-Year Mortgage Proposal

Federal officials say the concept remains under study with no formal plan.

Overview

  • President Donald Trump promoted the idea after FHFA Director Bill Pulte floated 50-year loans as an affordability tool, though the administration describes it as exploratory.
  • Independent analyses find only modest monthly payment reductions while total interest costs would soar, with estimates ranging from roughly 86% more interest to more than double versus a 30-year loan.
  • Mark Zandi of Moody’s Analytics says slower equity build would leave borrowers more exposed to shocks, raising default risk, and he expects rates on 50-year loans to be significantly higher than on 30-year mortgages.
  • Legal and implementation hurdles remain substantial under current rules, with Dodd‑Frank and GSE frameworks limiting conforming terms to 30 years, likely rendering any 50-year product non‑qualified without regulatory changes.
  • Polling shows notable interest from younger buyers—45% of Americans would consider such a loan, including 54% of millennials—yet economists warn that boosting demand without adding supply could lift home prices and blunt affordability gains.