Overview
- Moody’s Analytics now pegs the effective U.S. tariff rate on Mexican exports at 7.5%, down from an August forecast of 13.4%, as roughly 85% of shipments enter under T‑MEC rules.
- Economy Secretary Marcelo Ebrard says about 85 consultations with U.S. counterparts have produced roughly 90% progress and he expects a trilateral review in 2026 with only limited changes.
- Unresolved flashpoints include U.S. measures on steel and aluminum, while Mexico has proposed WTO‑maximum tariffs on 1,463 product lines in its 2026 economic package pending legislative approval.
- U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer has flagged Mexican non‑compliance and floated bilateral paths, which Ebrard rejects as operationally unworkable under the agreement’s structure.
- A 25% tariff on medium and heavy trucks is slated to take effect in November, with Moody’s saying higher auto‑parts compliance should blunt the hit, and a 90‑day U.S. tariff extension window expires in about 10 days.