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Moody’s Affirms India at Baa3 With Stable Outlook as Fiscal Strains Persist

The agency says high debt and weak affordability cap prospects for an upgrade.

Overview

  • Moody’s kept India’s long‑term local‑ and foreign‑currency issuer ratings and the local‑currency senior unsecured rating at Baa3 and maintained the short‑term local‑currency rating at P‑3.
  • The agency projects about 6.5% GDP growth in FY26, expecting India to remain the fastest‑growing G20 economy.
  • US tariffs of around 50% are judged to have limited near‑term impact but could restrain higher value‑added export manufacturing over time.
  • Moody’s does not expect higher H‑1B visa fees or potential outsourcing levies to significantly affect services exports, remittances, or the current‑account position.
  • Local‑currency and foreign‑currency bond ceilings stay at A2 and A3 respectively, underscoring a more cautious stance than S&P’s Aug. 14 upgrade to BBB and recent upgrades by DBRS and R&I.