Overview
- Environment Agency modelling published in mid-September sets out four rainfall scenarios and finds full recovery by spring needs roughly 120% of typical rain between now and March.
- Under the agency’s most likely scenario most of England would recover but Devon & Cornwall and East Anglia would still be in drought when spring begins.
- Forecasters warn of a low-probability severe scenario with around a 1% chance in which just 60% of normal rain would pose immediate risks to public supply reservoirs in Devon & Cornwall, the Solent & South Downs and parts of the River Severn.
- Government and industry have moved to manage supplies with weekly National Drought Group meetings, calls for faster leakage cuts by water companies, local restrictions such as Norfolk’s hosepipe ban, and targeted funding including £65m for farmers and £100m for extreme-weather response.
- The shortfall follows five heatwaves and a very dry July that left reservoirs and groundwater well below normal and means households and farmers may face continued limits on water use and farming support until rainfall substantially improves.