Overview
- The India Meteorological Department reported on Oct. 3 that conditions have become favourable for the southwest monsoon to withdraw from large parts of Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan, most of Uttar Pradesh, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh and the entire Jammu & Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand.
- Rain will persist in other areas with isolated heavy downpours forecast for Arunachal Pradesh on Oct. 3 and heavier spells for Himachal Pradesh, Jammu & Kashmir and Uttarakhand between Oct. 5 and 7, plus continued widespread rain over Kerala and parts of coastal Karnataka through Oct. 6.
- A western disturbance is expected to bring isolated to scattered rain to Haryana, Chandigarh and Delhi from Oct. 6 to 8, temporarily interrupting the dry, warm conditions over the plains and possibly lowering daytime temperatures after the showers.
- The four-month southwest monsoon (June–September) delivered about 87% of the long‑period average nationwide, with the Northeast recording roughly a 26% deficit; IMD withdrawal rules require sustained dry days, reduced moisture and a lower‑troposphere anticyclone, so staged declarations will follow regional conditions.
- Practical effects include continued warm, mostly dry weather and moderate air pollution in Delhi (AQI ~171–173), increased risk to Kharif crops and water supplies in deficit zones, and a need to watch for further post‑monsoon rainfall over the southern peninsula and any Andaman Sea low‑pressure developments in mid‑October.