Overview
- Satellite imagery and India Meteorological Department analysis show a renewed monsoon pause in late June with national cumulative rainfall running about 41–45% below the long-period average.
- The IMD maintains a 'below normal' seasonal forecast and says there is roughly a 60% probability that overall June–September rainfall will be more than 10% deficient.
- Several farming states report very large shortfalls, including Gujarat at about an 86% deficit, Maharashtra near 60%, Uttar Pradesh about 59%, Bihar about 52% and Madhya Pradesh about 42%.
- Moisture metrics from the Aridity Anomaly Index indicate moderate-to-severe stress across much of central India and the government has activated contingency plans in 315 vulnerable districts to protect sowing, water supplies and electricity demand.
- Past seasons have recovered from weak Junes and a positive Indian Ocean Dipole has offset El Niño before, but MMCFS forecasts a persistent neutral IOD this year so the monsoon's ability to recover in July remains uncertain.