Overview

• IMD logged 937.2 mm for June–September, or 108% of the long-period average, the fifth-highest total since 2001.
• Rainfall split sharply by region, with northwest India at 127% of normal, the wettest since 2001, versus 80% in the east and Northeast, the second lowest since 1901.
• Eighteen low-pressure systems spanning 69 system-days fueled repeated heavy spells that pushed up seasonal totals.
• Withdrawal has stalled as a Gulf of Kutch low and a developing Bay of Bengal system sustain rain; Delhi exceeded its October normal in a single day and fresh warnings focus on Saurashtra–Kutch and West Bengal in the coming days.
• October rainfall is forecast about 15% above normal with Oct–Dec above normal over the south peninsula, as IMD reports 1,528 monsoon deaths and urges proactive preparedness.