Overview
- The India Meteorological Department said the southwest monsoon is likely to begin withdrawing from some parts of west Rajasthan around September 19, noting the retreat will be staged and will not end rain everywhere immediately.
- A persistent low‑pressure area over southwest Rajasthan and an approaching Western Disturbance are sustaining widespread showers and thunderstorms and have prompted IMD alerts covering about 20 states with gusty winds up to roughly 60 km/h in spots.
- The IMD warned of isolated extremely heavy falls in Saurashtra and Kutch and very heavy spells in the Andaman & Nicobar Islands, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh while issuing fishermen warnings for parts of the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal.
- India’s cumulative monsoon rainfall remains about 15% below normal, with sharp regional shortfalls such as southern India (-28%), East and Northeast (-25%), Rayalaseema (-50%) and Punjab (-40%), a deficit that raises risks for crops, water supplies and heat stress.
- Forecast models, including an AI system, show a possible Bay of Bengal low between September 24–28 that could renew eastern and central rains but formation, track and intensity remain uncertain so forecasters will monitor development closely.