Moderate Geomagnetic Storm Expected as Solar Ejection Heads Toward Earth

Overview

• The Sun launched a powerful coronal mass ejection on Oct. 6 that NOAA predicts will reach Earth early Friday, Oct. 9, with roughly a six-hour uncertainty in arrival time.
• NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center has issued a G2 (moderate) geomagnetic-storm alert for Oct. 9 and the agency's WSA-ENLIL model places the CME front near the planet in the early-morning hours.
• If the CME's magnetic field turns southward when it hits Earth, auroras could appear at lower-than-usual northern latitudes, including parts of the United States, but the event is not expected to be visible from Brazil.
• Forecasts carry multi-hour timing and intensity uncertainty because models and coronagraph observations cannot yet fix the CME's exact speed, structure, or magnetic orientation.
• Solar activity has continued after the Oct. 6 eruption, including follow-up M-class flares and Earth-facing coronal holes, which could send additional fast solar wind and renew geomagnetic activity around Oct. 11.